Introduction
Li Shihe
Appraised as Father of TD in China.
Born in Chongqing, he graduated from Chengdu Institute of
Telecommunication Engineering in 1963 and received his postgraduate
degree at Physics Department of Nanjing University. In 1982,
he received a doctor degree at Montreal University of Canada.
Doctor Li Shihe, professor level senior
engineer and doctoral advisor, now acts as the senior technical
consultant of Datang Mobile. He has been dealing with scientific
research and management work for a long time and made great
accomplishment and achievement in the fields of microwave
communication and mobile telecom.
The honors he has won include National Science Conference
Award, First-class Prize for Scientific and Technical Advancement
by Ministry of Post and Telecommunications and National
First-class Prize for Scientific and Technical Advancement.
Among his research achievements, the most representative
one was TD-SCDMA wireless transmission technical proposal,
which was developed by Datang scientific research team led
by Li Shihe, submitted to ITU on behalf of China, and accepted
as one of the three major standards for 3G mobile communication
wireless access technologies. This standard is unprecedented
in China¡¯s telecom history for over a century.
While drafting and completing this standard, he has been
responsible for the development of a full range of TD-SCDMA
system sample devices, which will open a door to a huge
industry with promising domestic and international markets.
With this technical evolution, China will become one of
the countries with most advanced mobile communication technologies.
As a doctoral advisor, Li Shihe has cultivated over 20 postgraduates
and several post doctoral researchers since 1984. These
people are now making great contributions to communication
enterprise of China by doing scientific research and management
work.
Interview
¡°In China, people are sensitive
about their reputation. Let¡¯s satisfy them.¡±
¨C Why wasn¡¯t TD killed at birth
Wang Jing:
Dr. Li, as a founder or TD technologies, you are called
¡°Father of TD¡±, which title you doubtlessly deserve. This
year marks the tenth anniversary of TD-SCDMA being submitted
to ITU. In our interview, can you first recollect development
history and stories of TD-SCDMA briefly?
Li Shihe:
To be honest, the development of TD technology in China
is a natural course, and also a very hard and tortuous journey.
From the point of view of macroeconomics, China had backward
economy before 19980s. As the Opening and Reform started
in 1980s, people gradually learned how to become rich by
such as working for foreign enterprises and starting their
own assembly business, and obviously China became a world
plant during this course. This was what foreign investors
had expected, because they can hire employees in China and
make great profit. About ten years ago when this World Plant
concept was gaining popularity, Ministry of Information
Industry was beginning to find ways to facilitate development
of our own IPRs, industries, technologies, and truly independent
operators so that China can evolve from a major telecom
market into a country with leading technical strength and
Chinese enterprises can be the master of their own fate.
TD was developed in such a situation.
Wang Jing:
This situation gave birth to TD.
Li Shihe:
This situation reflects the social demand from people who
didn¡¯t want to work for foreign enterprises as well as the
general political and economic development conditions in
China at that time. It was easy to kill TD at birth in many
occasions during the past decade. A US professor told me
three years ago that western multinational corporations
felt regret because they could have killed TD but didn¡¯t.
Why? Because these companies were all focusing on the huge
communication market in China when we submit TD standard.
They wouldn¡¯t like to object to this standard strongly with
the understanding that people need a lot of communication
services in China as the economy grows rapidly, and that
China was the largest market around the world.
TD could have been killed easily, but these foreign enterprises
were thinking: ¡°In China, people are sensitive about their
reputation. Let¡¯s satisfy them by allowing them to have
their own standard.¡±
Wang Jing:
They didn¡¯t believe that TD would grow strong.
Li Shihe:
Yes, they didn¡¯t expect us to develop a mature and strong
standard and they believed they would always have firm control
over Chinese market.
Wang Jing:
So it was a very hard time in the beginning.
Li Shihe:
Sure it was! Only Siemens made earnest efforts in developing
this standard, and other enterprises were just waiting in
doubt. We also lacked support from domestic enterprises
and research authorities. Only Zhou Huan and me were involved.
Zhou Huan was very determined and told me he would like
to sell all of his belongings to get the plan started. We
even mortgaged the buildings and property in the institute,
to collect money. If we fail, we would lose everything.
Wang Jing:
So no turning back was allowed and you had to fight a way
out.
Li Shihe:
Absolutely. We probably took both foreign and domestic enterprises
by surprise because they didn¡¯t count on our effort. We
won National Technical Advancement Price when this project
was launched ten years ago, but we only got 1 million Yuan
from the government and other funds had to be collected
from enterprises.
Wang Jing:
Back then, TD was not generally related to national interest.
Li Shihe:
That¡¯s true. It was the hardest time from 2000 to 2003 because
we this plan could be terminated at any time. Also, we felt
the power of solidarity during this period. People working
on TD feared nothing and we were not doing this for money.
We fought our lives for it. About five years ago, promotion
of independent innovations were included in government policies
because innovative industries were a must for strong economy
system from the view of macroeconomics. This policy was
made clear and discussed as the first issue during the session
of the Eighth National Congress of the CPP. This was when
we began to gain strong public and financial support and
started efficient. To be frank, we wasted a lot of time
before working efficiently on TD development in the past
few years.
Darkness
before dawn£¿
¨C With no market response, TD is facing another ¡±To be or
not to be¡± choice
Wang Jing:
Your view of TD euthanasia has been circulated in many web
sites in recent days.
Li Shihe:
TD euthanasia is not my opinion. I just quoted it from others.
At this stage, the life or death of TD is not determined
by manufacturers or technical developers. Some would say
there is no user or market response. This is just an excuse.
TD is facing very dangerous situation now!
Wang Jing:
So far TD has been promoted from technical level to the
market. China Mobile started commercial trial use on April
1. According to recent results and conditions, we feel that
TD can be further developed in terms of pricing policies
and trial use procedures and methods.
Li Shihe:
Nobody plans and regulates it. That¡¯s the current situation.
Wang Jing:
Over 2000 base stations have been established in TD network
in Beijing, but there are many issues concerning coverage.
The network started signal transmission from April 1, but
people found it difficult to get quality signals and smooth
communication. This situation was very negative for the
promotion of TD.
Li Shihe:
Why have TD facilities been established in Shanghai and
Guangzhou rapidly with basic optimization? It has been completed
accepted in Guangzhou, which proves its feasibility. You
can always find a thousand reasons and evidences for not
being able to do it. That¡¯s why I quoted the view of TD
euthanasia, which means TD dies when people don¡¯t need it
and the telephone system doesn¡¯t work. You see the actual
problem is that we don¡¯t know who are responsible for making
decisions and how we should make plan and preparation. So
the live of death of TD is not dependent on technologies
or products.
Wang Jing:
There is no clear response from the market and no explicit
market plan.
Li Shihe:
Yes, we don¡¯t have clear market response and market plan,
so currently there is no way out.
Wang Jing:
It¡¯s difficult for some small companies to survive in the
near future.
Li Shihe:
They are already on the edge of bankruptcy. The manufacturers
are facing very dangerous situation and will continuously
phase out from the market. Long and medium term plans for
the coming 15 years were established by the government last
year with high expectation for TD. However, so far no actual
projects have been launched. It is explicated noted in the
plans that nationwide TD network should be constructed in
China by 2011. But who are responsible for these tasks?
And who are responsible for deloyment? [Editor note: Kaiming,
a TD chip manufacturer, announced broken capital chain the
day after this interview.]
Wang Jing:
Since it has been included in the government development
plans that nationwide TD network should be constructed in
China by 2011, Ministry of Information Industry, or Ministry
of Industry and Information, should make arrangement for
implementation.
Li Shihe:
How? Should they make arrangement for network deployment?
Now more and more people feel crisis, but all of them are
normal people and the opinions can¡¯t be conveyed to influential
people. The most important thing at current stage is to
urge decision-makers and influential people to promote TD
development with compulsory policies. Any flexible plans
or instructions might be suspended and a thousand reasons
can be found for such suspension such as bad time and immature
environment, and the instructions all turn into garbage
with these reasons.
I remember that there was a major public resentment when
State Development and Reform Commission first announced
its support to TD in 2002 and 2003. Later we made investigation
and found out people writing article to attack TD were secretly
paid.
Wang Jing:
Is this true?
Li Shihe:
Some people won¡¯t do such things, but others are very weak
and sell themselves for money. That¡¯s why we heard a lot
of objections. I could hardly argue with them in public
media because they even didn¡¯t know basic concepts. It¡¯s
like casting pearls before swine.
The day before TD signal transmission was started, we already
saw an article in some media describing how TD is not recognized
and greeted by the public. A reporter in support of TD called
the writer of this article and found out the truth. This
writer just passed by a business hall at about 8 a.m., and
seeing no customer at the entrance, he returned home to
write this article. The business hall actually opened at
9:30 and started TD sales at 10 o¡¯clock. This article had
very negative influence, and I can¡¯t remember how many calls
I received from public media for it.
Wang Jing:
We don¡¯t have favorable public opinions for the health development
of TD.
Li Shihe:
Yes, No matter what technical direction or field is involved,
domestic and foreign interest groups will force pressure
on you through public opinions. Cherry, for example, used
to face such a situation and had to deal with pressure from
different sources. They managed to survive by establishing
a joint venture with Shanghai Automobile. People tend to
be easy on automobile models offered by foreign manufacturers
and hard on domestic ones. This is not just the case for
Cherry. It actually reflects a major risk in China economy.
Previously I didn¡¯t think much about this, but was able
to comprehend this situate on a higher lever after talking
with some economists. According to their opinion, Chinese
economy is facing the most difficult time now. Although
both GDP and personal income are growing, the real crisis
still exists. To be brief, it¡¯s easy for China to get rich,
but extremely hard to get strong.
¡°There is no reason for not
choosing TD in 3G age.¡±
¨C A participator of international telecom environment construction
Wang Jing:
What are the general conditions of 3G in China now? Will
it be still developed according?
Li Shihe:
Sure it will.
Wang Jing:
Will this stage be very short?
Li Shihe:
It¡¯s not possible. 3G is a technical development phase that
can¡¯t be bypassed. Ignoring 3G will lead to extreme pressure.
We have to experience such a technical and market development
stage. However, its duration is dependent on many factors.
At present the critical factor is decision-making and implementation
instead of technologies, manufacturers or product maturity.
You can see technical advancement in exhibitions. For products
offered by mainstream suppliers such as Datang and Zhongxing,
although China Mobile hasn¡¯t presented corresponding products
of the next generation, I have made full preparation. What¡¯s
more, our technology can be completed by means of software
upgrading. It also has the advantage of low cost, with a
price lower than half of GSM. So there is not reason for
not using it. It should be a reasonable choice for normal
people.
Wang Jing:
Maybe other 3G systems are also feasible.
Li Shihe:
You are right. That¡¯s the real problem.
Wang Jing:
From technical point of view, what improvement is required
for further TD development?
Li Shihe:
We are still working intensively on technical issues.
Wang Jing:
Does the system support HSDPA?
Li Shihe:
Completely. HSUPA standards have just been established.
We will present products by the end of this year, and LTE
will probably come out next year.
Wang Jing:
China is becoming a participator in international telecom
environment construction.
Li Shihe:
Yes we are. Although 3GPP standard is not mature, we have
almost completed sample devices, and the only work left
is final establishment of the standard. The standard can
be completely met within half a year. It is expected that
Chinese patents are comparable in number to foreign ones
in core 3G technologies both at current stage and in the
future. This can be clearly demonstrated. In terms of quality
of technical products, overall competition is possible now.
We can¡¯t say we have better products, but at least we also
have supporting patents and on the same level as competitors.
Wang Jing:
If we focus on LTE all the time, will it have negative influence
on existing TD products?
Li Shihe:
Not really. This won¡¯t affect system manufacturers since
accompanying software is the critical factor.
Wang Jing:
So will LTE be only subject to TD system upgrading in the
future?
Li Shihe:
Some modifications will be made for sure, including RF.
Many system improvements can be completed by software upgrading.
Therefore, in terms of system technologies, we are even
faster than international enterprises. But the situation
is different for terminals because the market is not clear
and manufacturers are not able to start production.
Wang Jing:
What do you think can guarantee the healthy development
of TD?
Li Shihe. This is quite simple. We need a practical plan
that allows TD network to covers all major cities in China
by 2011. I can say for sure that none bottlenecks is caused
by manufacturers.
Wang Jing:
So are they related to policy and management?
Li Shihe:
You know how GSM system was initially opened in China 10
years ago. Back then Minister Wu Jichuan organized a conference
at the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications attended
by heads of telecom administrations of all provinces. Participants
gathered in the afternoon and the meeting was held in the
evening, during which an order was made to use GSM compulsorily
as much as possible in spite of other negative factors.
At early stage, failed mobile phone calls were very frequent
and the connection rate even can¡¯t reach 30% by 1997 and
1998. This is much worse than TD. Only two mobile phone
models were offered, which provided intermittent communication
and very poor standby time. Now the connection rate of TD
is 98% to 99%, which means much better performance than
GSM network. The connection rate of TD exceeds 98% at all
testing points.
I used to make calls from a running levitated train in Shanghai
to compare GSM and TD mobile phones. Now we have many stations
alongside the highroads, but when I made that trip the construction
was not finished and only a half of the total length was
covered. TD could be connected for a length of 300 kilometers,
as compared to 200 kilometer for GSM. So I believe TD is
not worse than GSM. We can¡¯t expect a perfect system. I
remember in 2004 and 2005 when WCDMA was first launched
in Hong Kong, each mobile phone was equipped with three
chargers for use in home, car and office respectively. The
phone had to be recharged whenever it lost power. Why didn¡¯t
we hear any complaint saying WCDMA was not practical?
Wang Jing:
Is it about market guiding and operation?
Li Shihe:
It¡¯s about interest!
The starting gun is held by
the government
¨C Words from Father of TD for adherents
Wang Jing:
You treat TD like your own child from the very beginning.
The past ten years was a hard time for you. If unfortunately
TD can¡¯t be widely accepted and suffers euthanasia, many
people will feel sad.
Li Shihe:
Yes. Decisions must be made and feasible plans should be
implemented. This is what we actually need. For an industry
in such a development stage, the operators have to make
final rush. No matter how fast you were before, you have
to be faster to win. When we think about the development
of GSM, we could conclude that without the business in China
market and support from China Mobile, it¡¯s not possible
for GSM to become this popular. Even Ericsson were facing
dangerous economic situation and could hardly find way out.
Launch of GSM system in China made things totally different
immediately. This just happened about ten years ago and
we shouldn¡¯t forget. There was a time when product delivery
was difficult, and regulations were modified by the government
to allow work at weekends. The poor GSM network gradually
went mature. From technical point of view, TD is one generation
ahead of PHS and has lower cost than PHS. Since PHS is so
popular, why TD can¡¯t be widely adopted?
Wang Jing:
Does TD have better coverage in cities if repeated investments
and voice coverage are considered?
Li Shihe:
The major concern in cities is data and there won¡¯t be repeated
coverage related issues.
Wang Jing:
Will repeated voice coverage occur, if not in cities, in
rural areas?
Li Shihe:
Repeated coverage has been caused by G-network, C-network
and PHS network in turn. So it won¡¯t be any problem for
repeated coverage of TD.
Wang Jing:
You have mentioned that the imminent task would be constructing
network as soon as possible across the whole country.
Li Shihe:
It has to be done immediately with concrete plans and actions,
otherwise the situation will be dangerous. It would be too
late if we took actions after the Olympic Games. To my knowledge,
local operators welcome TD network. For example, in Shijiazhuang,
they are eager to deploy TD network, which has been connected
to Baoding and is very near to Shijiazhuang. Many provincial
mobile companies are also enthusiastic, but there is nothing
they can do since they don¡¯t have the right to make decisions.
Wang Jing:
If the government establishes a general policy for large-scale
network deployment, what do you see in the future of TD?
Li Shihe:
We can absolutely work it out. After the network construction
during last year, we are pretty confident about the overall
quality and speed of the network. The construction in last
years was very fast. In Guangzhou, it only took less than
8 months to complete half of the total work that consumed
20 years previously. Although both the contractors and us
were not very confident about Guangzhou project in the beginning,
it was completed successfully. The daily failure rate of
the devices is less than one 1¡ë, and some of these faults
are caused by transmission rather than devices.
Wang Jing:
Is there any problem about station sites?
Li Shihe:
We tried to use GSM stations and add some devices. Construction
in Guangzhou and Shanghai was started in last May and finished
by the end of last November in Guangzhou and by the end
of last December in Shanghai respectively.
Wang Jing:
So far there is no conformed report about network expansion.
Li Shihe:
No. We are all waiting for the starting gun at the scratch
line. If you have Liu Xiang wait for the starting gun for
as long as an hour, he will also feel too exhausted to run.
I think this is very possible. However, from the point of
view of history development of a country, much lesson can
be learned from such things. People will benefit from such
experience and comment on our work in the future. I have
made my efforts and won¡¯t regret no matter whether TD will
succeed in the future.
Wang Jing:
Thank you very much for taking this interview. We have learned
much from your opinions and believe that this interview
will inspire more people. Thank you!
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